In reply to Tom Coates.

I've noticed something. People say "Well, if you make things available for easy and cheap, piracy will go away/go down to where it's not a problem".

Okay. Show the numbers. Not some cherry picked thing like this: http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/news/2011/02/where-have-all-the-music-pirates-gone.ars where they try to take one part of a study that looked at one day's worth of torrent traffic, (ignoring the rest of the study) and say "Look, this PROVES that music piracy is effectively gone".

But actual studies done over time since, say the first iteration of the iTMS that show music piracy in all its glorious forms falling over and being effectively fucking dead. Preferably by a third party who has a history of doing such things well, with source data and methodologies available.

Because based on what little is out there, no one, on either side can prove shit. At best, this entire "make it easy & cheap and they will pay" is *unproven*. From what I've seen, I still think it's *disproven*. But should someone show me better numbers, I'll accept them. Or any numbers, really.

Then explain why that fails to follow out of music. For example, why is digital art so heavily pirated in spite of being YEARS ahead of the curve in terms of distribution and lower cost.

Also:

So you need (say) eight of those people to download for every one who buys HBO. That seems *entirely* plausible to me, frankly. Eight people who are prepared to pay $60 to watch True Blood for every one who is prepared to pay $240.

Is your argument REALLY that people should be paying $240 a year for True Blood? Because that just doesn’t sound in any way plausible. Not one bit.

It's EXACTLY as plausible as your completely made up 8:1 number. Also, what are you basing your wholesale replacement of that HBO sub number for $60 on iTunes number on? Do you know for a fact that if all those $240 subs went away, that HBO would still be able to sell seasons at the same price? If so, what's your source? Remember, those subs are predictable money. You can, literally, bank on it. You can't bank on one-time sales in the same way. You can make educated guesses about it and be fairly right, but still, not the same thing. It's why the accounting rules for subs and purchases are so different, and why the only reason you get an $800 cell phone for much, much less is because you're repaying that cost drop over the course of two years with your subscription.

Everything is not the same.

And people will justifiably start asking ‘why am I paying so much for this’ or ‘why can’t I get it at the same time as I get all my other shows’.

"Why do I pay so much for a BMW when I can get a TaTa, basically the same thing, for $2000"?

Value and price are not the same thing. I will pay, assuming I can afford it, whatever Led Zeppelin choses to charge for whatever they release, because for me, Led Zeppelin has huge value. Do I care that I can get the fabulous schmuck sisters for a buck and a quarter? No, because I don't give a crap about them.

The fact that other things are cheaper doesn't mean everything must also be cheaper, and again, you still can't show that the costs of producing a show like GoT will be met by your "give it to me cheap and easy" demands. You can't even speculate that worth a damn. However, HBO can tell you that right now, that shit is profitable. Show them better numbers, and you may get listened to more.

Again, there’s a difference between what is fair and reasonable and what is going to happen. We’re in a transitional period here. Obviously the possible viewers buying things from iTunes is likely to grow massively over the next ten years. And the desire to be able to buy bespoke, just the things you want, to watch when and how you want, is not going to evaporate. So, I’m afraid, one way or another, HBO are going to have to find some way to adjust to it.

Why are you so sure they refuse to, just because they aren't doing it NOW. HBO is not a small entity, and they may be trying, clumsily and slowly to do what they need to while not firing 90% of the damned company. They may, just may be trying to screw the smallest amount of people possible over the long term.